INVESTOR BRIEFING: AI BUBBLE COLLAPSE SCENARIO & CRYPTOCURRENCY CONTAGION RISK

Mark Lagarde
Wed, 19 Nov 2025 09:54:21 +0000
AI Bubble, Investor Briefing

Regulators from the ECB, Bank of England, IMF and WEF now explicitly warn that AI-driven equity valuations look bubble-like and vulnerable to an abrupt correction. In a worst-case “AI bust,” losses would cascade through passive funds, derivatives and high-beta assets – with cryptocurrencies among the first casualties.

Regulators from the ECB, Bank of England, IMF and WEF now explicitly warn that AI-driven equity valuations look bubble-like and vulnerable to an abrupt correction. The artificial intelligence investment bubble presents a critical financial stability risk that demands immediate portfolio rebalancing. The regulators have escalated warnings from cautionary to alarming, drawing explicit parallels to the dot-com collapse of 2000 and the 2008 financial crisis.

Worst-Case / Doomsday Scenario

The structural vulnerability centers on circular financing mechanisms where AI enterprises extend investment capital to each other’s services, artificially inflating revenue streams divorced from genuine market demand. Non-bank private credit now finances 50% of AI infrastructure development—data centers, GPU fleets, and chip fabrication—totaling trillions in leveraged positions. When this circular arrangement unwinds, debt obligations cascade through the financial system faster than traditional equity corrections.​

AI’s current valuation represents approximately one-third more capital concentration than the entire 1990s internet bubble, amplifying potential downside severity. Should deployment fail to generate projected returns, institutional liquidation could trigger margin calls across overleveraged treasury and venture debt positions, creating forced selling that accelerates market collapse (Source: NYTimes.com)

Trigger.
A cluster of shocks hits simultaneously:

Several AI megacaps miss earnings and guide lower on AI monetisation (Source: goldmansachs.com).

US yields spike as markets re-price debt sustainability and central banks stay restrictive to fight a second inflation wave (Source: Reuters).

Global growth rolls over, exposing overinvestment in data centres and AI infrastructure (Source: The Times of India).

Equity shock.
Highly concentrated AI leaders (the “Magnificent 7”) drop 60–75%; global tech indices fall 50–65%; broad US and European benchmarks lose 30–40% (Source: Le Monde.fr).
Risk-parity and vol-targeting strategies de-risk mechanically, margin calls explode, and ETFs amplify forced selling.

Crypto Market Impact (BTC, ETH, Altcoins)

Crypto has recently traded increasingly in lockstep with US equities, especially during Fed-driven risk-off episodes (Source: bloomberg.com)

In a full AI bubble burst:

Bitcoin (BTC): narrative flips from “digital gold + AI infrastructure play” to pure high-beta risk asset. A 60–80% drawdown from pre-crash levels is plausible as leverage is flushed from perp markets and major lenders tighten collateral rules. Current $94,000–$95,000 levels collapse to $19,000–$38,000 support zones.

Ethereum (ETH): bears added earnings-style risk via NFT, DeFi and rollup activity. In a deep liquidity shock, ETH could fall 70–90%, with DeFi liquidations, protocol treasury losses and L2 funding stress.

Altcoins: long tail tokens, AI-themed coins and illiquid DeFi assets could see 90–100% peak-to-trough declines, with many never recovering. Stablecoin redemptions and potential issuer stress would further drain on-chain liquidity.

The result: This severity exceeds traditional recession correlations due to liquidation cascades: overleveraged positions force algorithmic selling at market prices, eliminating bid support and accelerating volatility. We could face a multi-year crypto winter, widespread project failures, and intensified regulatory crackdowns on leverage, stablecoins and retail marketing.

Probability & Macro Preconditions

FinTelegram’s qualitative assessment:

Base case (50–60%): orderly derating – AI stocks correct 20–30%; BTC/ETH −40–60%; no systemic crisis.

Adverse case (25–35%): deeper but manageable AI and crypto drawdown without broad financial instability.

Doomsday tail (10–15% over 2–3 years): scenario outlined above, contingent on:

renewed inflation forcing further rate hikes,

recession in US/EU with earnings collapse,

sovereign-debt or private-credit stress interacting with AI and crypto bubbles (Sources: Reuters, ECB, BOE).

Actionable Takeaways (Not Investment Advice)

Treat AI-linked tech and crypto as correlated high-beta risk, not diversification.

Stress-test portfolios for 60–80% crypto drawdowns and 30–40% equity drops.

Favour robust liquidity, limited leverage, and clear exit rules over AI or crypto FOMO trades.