Investor Briefing: Bitcoin Prints a New ATH — What This Post-Halving Cycle Signals

Ben
Mon, 06 Oct 2025 11:05:03 +0000
Investor Briefing, ticker

Executive Summary

Bitcoin pushed to a fresh all-time high around $125k over the weekend and is consolidating just below it today (Mon, 6 Oct 2025, Europe/Vienna). The move caps a year of powerful spot-ETF-driven demand and shrinking new supply after the Apr 20, 2024 halving (block 840,000). Compared with Oct 2017 and Oct 2021, today’s backdrop features deeper institutional rails (U.S. spot ETFs) and clearer regulation (EU MiCA in force), which should moderate—but not eliminate—post-peak drawdowns.

Opportunities

Structural demand via U.S. spot ETFs: The SEC’s Jan 10, 2024 approvals opened a persistent, brokerage-native buy channel; recent reports cite multi-billion weekly net inflows around the new highs (Source: sec.gov).

Programmed supply squeeze: Issuance halved from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block on Apr 20, 2024, mechanically reducing sell pressure from miners (Source: Wikipedia).

Regulatory normalization (EU): MiCA has entered application (stablecoin rules since 30 Jun 2024; CASP/issuer regime 30 Dec 2024), improving institutional comfort and market conduct (Source: amf-france.org).

Risks

Cycle reflexivity & precedent: After the 2016 and 2020 halvings, BTC peaked within ~12–18 months and then fell 70–80% in the following bear phases (2018 and 2022). Macro shocks or ETF outflows could re-create deep drawdowns (Source: CoinDesk).

Miner economics & fee volatility: Post-halving, miners rely more on fees (boosted at times by Ordinals/Runes activity), which are cyclical and can amplify network-wide liquidity swings (Source: Investopedia).

Policy/market-liquidity shocks: 2025 already delivered double-digit monthly selloffs; political or rate-path surprises can quickly unwind momentum (Source: The Guardian).

Market Impact (Oct 2025 vs Oct 2021 vs Oct 2017)

Oct 2017 (post-2016 halving): Retail-led melt-up into Dec 2017 near $20k, followed by a brutal 2018 crash (~70–80%). No ETF access, minimal institutional rails (Source: Reuters).

Oct 2021 (post-2020 halving): Futures-based ETF (BITO) launched in Oct, catalyzing a run toward Nov 2021’s ~$69k ATH before the 2022 bear. Institutional interest rose, but no spot ETF (Source: Reuters)

Oct 2025 (post-2024 halving): Spot ETF era + friendlier U.S. policy tone + EU MiCA in force. New ATH ~$125k with meaningful ETF inflows amid macro uncertainty (safe-haven/debasement trade narrative).

Regulatory Context

United States: SEC approved 11 spot Bitcoin ETPs on Jan 10, 2024, transforming access for RIAs and traditional portfolios.

European Union: MiCA now applicable (stablecoins from Jun 30, 2024; remaining provisions Dec 30, 2024), with licensing of CASPs underway—raising baseline standards for custody, market abuse, and disclosures.

Actionable Takeaways

1. Position sizing for volatility: Treat 30–50% pullbacks as baseline risk even in an up-cycle; pre-commit add levels rather than chase strength.

2. Use the rails: Prefer spot-ETF wrappers where mandates require it; monitor net-flow momentum as a leading indicator for trend health (Source: MarketWatch).

3. Diversify drivers: Pair BTC exposure with liquid rates hedges or gold if your thesis leans on the “debasement trade” (Source: MarketWatch).

4. Watch miners: Track hashrate/fee mix and public-miner margins; stress in mining often leads broader market weakness (Source: Cointelegraph).

Hypothesis: Will the “post-halving crash” repeat?

Base case (>50% probability): This cycle peaks later and sees shallower downside than 2018/2022 because spot-ETF demand + MiCA clarity create steadier bid/participation. Expect cyclical drawdowns of 30–50%, not an 80% collapse—unless we see a regulatory shock, major ETF outflows, or a systemic exchange failure. Tail risk (<25%): a policy/credit/liquidity event triggers a >60% drawdown reminiscent of prior cycles.

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Executive Summary

Bitcoin pushed to a fresh all-time high around $125k over the weekend and is consolidating just below it today (Mon, 6 Oct 2025, Europe/Vienna). The move caps a year of powerful spot-ETF-driven demand and shrinking new supply after the Apr 20, 2024 halving (block 840,000). Compared with Oct 2017 and Oct 2021, today’s backdrop features deeper institutional rails (U.S. spot ETFs) and clearer regulation (EU MiCA in force), which should moderate—but not eliminate—post-peak drawdowns. amf-france.org+3Reuters+3MarketWatch+3

Opportunities

Structural demand via U.S. spot ETFs: The SEC’s Jan 10, 2024 approvals opened a persistent, brokerage-native buy channel; recent reports cite multi-billion weekly net inflows around the new highs. sec.gov+1

Programmed supply squeeze: Issuance halved from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block on Apr 20, 2024, mechanically reducing sell pressure from miners. Wikipedia

Regulatory normalization (EU): MiCA has entered application (stablecoin rules since 30 Jun 2024; CASP/issuer regime 30 Dec 2024), improving institutional comfort and market conduct. amf-france.org

Risks

Cycle reflexivity & precedent: After the 2016 and 2020 halvings, BTC peaked within ~12–18 months and then fell 70–80% in the following bear phases (2018 and 2022). Macro shocks or ETF outflows could re-create deep drawdowns. CoinDesk+1

Miner economics & fee volatility: Post-halving, miners rely more on fees (boosted at times by Ordinals/Runes activity), which are cyclical and can amplify network-wide liquidity swings. Investopedia+1

Policy/market-liquidity shocks: 2025 already delivered double-digit monthly selloffs; political or rate-path surprises can quickly unwind momentum. The Guardian

Market Impact (Oct 2025 vs Oct 2021 vs Oct 2017)

Oct 2017 (post-2016 halving): Retail-led melt-up into Dec 2017 near $20k, followed by a brutal 2018 crash (~70–80%). No ETF access, minimal institutional rails. Reuters

Oct 2021 (post-2020 halving): Futures-based ETF (BITO) launched in Oct, catalyzing a run toward Nov 2021’s ~$69k ATH before the 2022 bear. Institutional interest rose, but no spot ETF. Reuters+1

Oct 2025 (post-2024 halving): Spot ETF era + friendlier U.S. policy tone + EU MiCA in force. New ATH ~$125k with meaningful ETF inflows amid macro uncertainty (safe-haven/debasement trade narrative). Reuters+1

Regulatory Context

United States: SEC approved 11 spot Bitcoin ETPs on Jan 10, 2024, transforming access for RIAs and traditional portfolios. sec.gov+1

European Union: MiCA now applicable (stablecoins from Jun 30, 2024; remaining provisions Dec 30, 2024), with licensing of CASPs underway—raising baseline standards for custody, market abuse, and disclosures. amf-france.org+1

Actionable Takeaways

1. Position sizing for volatility: Treat 30–50% pullbacks as baseline risk even in an up-cycle; pre-commit add levels rather than chase strength.

2. Use the rails: Prefer spot-ETF wrappers where mandates require it; monitor net-flow momentum as a leading indicator for trend health. MarketWatch

3. Diversify drivers: Pair BTC exposure with liquid rates hedges or gold if your thesis leans on the “debasement trade.” MarketWatch

4. Watch miners: Track hashrate/fee mix and public-miner margins; stress in mining often leads broader market weakness. Cointelegraph+1

Hypothesis: Will the “post-halving crash” repeat?

Base case (>50% probability): This cycle peaks later and sees shallower downside than 2018/2022 because spot-ETF demand + MiCA clarity create steadier bid/participation. Expect cyclical drawdowns of 30–50%, not an 80% collapse—unless we see a regulatory shock, major ETF outflows, or a systemic exchange failure. Tail risk (<25%): a policy/credit/liquidity event triggers a >60% drawdown reminiscent of prior cycles.